Zarepheth wrote:
If we had full employment ... I would not be surprised to see our productive economy producing twice what it does now.
Agree--
IF America or all nations WERE to discover benign methods for
(1) supporting private enterprise-- with zero taxation (except to discourage smoking and similar conduct -- if possible, and to protect low pricing of necessary items--by, say, taxing alternative uses of ingredients that we want to be favored for use as food, medicine, etc.,), and
(2) supporting strategic government enterprise for exotic energy systems, education, prohibitively expensive research and development, public health and infrastructure, environmental repair and protection, fire and flood prevention, etc., etc., etc.,
with full employment of potential capital and willing labor as a major purpose,
THEN the economic output of such nations would be many times its current size in units and money measures.
What then compels us to run are economy on so few cylinders? Is it money and banking? Is it corruption in Congress? Is it the heavy weight of history and habit? Is it inexplicable?
Answers may be less effective than accidental change: within the past two months the Federal Reserve has directly bought US Treasuries: this is the method we used to finance WW II ahead of bond sales to the private sector and tax revenues collected from that sector.
I will allow such heroic ad hoc measure to be credited to both Obama and Bernanke. What we do not know is how the Executive branch team of economic gurus sees this possibility: will they use such funding to rescue the middle class? Will they use it to prevent a race to the bottom in global labor and environmental standards?
I criticize the President for not using the bully pulpit to demand Congress support such uses. He has, instead, claimed that decades of inattention to the poor, the infrastructure, the environment, and the economic security of most Americans, cannot be cured overnight. In fact it can. Government spending of money created by the Federal Reserve can cure deflation overnight.
The cure will set us up for hyperinflation. To prevent that unintended outcome the people and its political institutions must be prepared to compel people and firms with money in excess of a safe ceiling to save such money and not spend it until it can be absorbed by a much enlarged supply system.
In return for such compelled savings, government would have to offer inflation protection for the savings. When we returned to normal spending, savings balances would have lost no purchasing power.
If I am right--why am I so alone? Well, I'm not alone. I'm supported by Martin Wolf (Financial Times) and Mathew Forstater, learned economist, now, and in the history of economics by Abba Lerner and Richard Vickery. The latter is a Nobel Laureate, the former deserved to be the same.